NAVIGATING DEEP UNCERTAINTY: BEHAVIORAL STRATEGY AND ORGANIZATIONAL RESILIENCE IN TIMES OF CRISIS, A CASE STUDY OF THE IGBO APPRENTICESHIP PROGRAM IN ONITSHA.
BY
PASTOR ISRAEL OLEDIBE
+2348064732616
ABSTRACT
Crises marked by deep uncertainty continue to expose vulnerabilities in global business systems, particularly in fragile economies where formal support structures are weak. This study examines the Igbo Apprenticeship Program (IAP) in Onitsha Main Market, Nigeria, as a community-driven model of resilience. The research explores how indigenous institutions enable entrepreneurs to adapt and thrive during systemic shocks by embedding behavioral strategies and collective safety nets into everyday practice. Using a qualitative case study approach, data were collected through interviews, ethnographic observation, and archival analysis. Thematic findings reveal that traders rely on heuristics, intuition, and trust-based decision-making to navigate volatile environments. The IAP institutionalizes resilience through mentorship, intergenerational knowledge transfer, and settlement practices that redistribute resources and ensure entrepreneurial continuity. Unlike formal organizations that depend on structured contingency planning, the IAP leverages cultural norms, reciprocity, and communal enforcement to sustain businesses during crises such as currency devaluations, civil unrest, and the COVID-19 pandemic. By embedding risk-sharing and restorative mechanisms into apprenticeship contracts, the system demonstrates resilience as a collective, culturally grounded phenomenon rather than a purely organizational property.
This study contributes to resilience theory by bridging indigenous entrepreneurship with behavioral strategy, highlighting how informal institutions foster adaptability under deep uncertainty. Practically, it suggests that policymakers and development actors should recognize and integrate community-based models like the IAP into broader frameworks of inclusive economic resilience, offering lessons relevant not only to African economies but also to global contexts increasingly defined by volatility and unpredictability.
KEYWORDS: Crisis management, Deep uncertainty, Behavioral strategy, Organizational resilience, Indigenous entrepreneurship, Igbo Apprenticeship Program, Informal institutions, Trust networks, Mentorship, Risk-sharing
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